Tuesday, October 2, 2012

The Horse Race

Romney / Obama Debate Tonight 10/3 in Denver

Contrary to what much of the mainstream media is putting out, the US Presidential race is in a statistical tie going into tonight's debate.  The Wall Street Journal shows the race tightening from five to three points in the past two weeks http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443862604578032670461150446.html?mod=djemalertNEWS.  Rasmussen, the most accurate poll in the past three Presidential contests, has it at a one point race nationally http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll.  Just today the National Journal released a poll that has Obama / Romney tied at 47 each with likely voters http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily/obama-romney-tied-among-likely-voters-20121002. Note that the National Journal also has Independents breaking for Romney by 49 to 41 per cent -- a good sign for the remaining undecided voters.

The debates which start tonight 10/3/12 at 9pm EST can and will make a difference.  The Presidential debates made a difference in close elections in 1960 (Kennedy/ Nixon) and again in 2000 (Bush / Gore).  http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/01/us/politics/using-debates-to-turn-electoral-tide-difficult-but-not-impossible.html?_r=1

The left, aided by their media pals, has been playing the con game of calling an early victory to discourage turnout among Republican-leaning voters.  It just won't work.

Closing factors that favor Romney...

1) Romney is raising more money than Obama, this will help in swing states such as FL, CO, etc. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-19155089)

2) More "undecideds" are male and married, both categories that favor Romney.

3) A vote for Obama is a vote for gridlock as it is highly likely that Republicans will continue to control the House of Representatives.  Romney is, in fact, the only way FORWARD.

4) Romney simply wants it more than Obama.  Romney is hungrier than Obama.  President Obama is lukewarm about even being a politician (unlike Bill Clinton).  Look at his lacklustre acceptance speech.  Obama is just going through the motions -- this will hurt him in the debates and on the campaign trail.  No one will be more relieved than Obama himself when he loses on November 6, 2012.

5) Middle East Chaos.  Violence and anti-American riots across the Middle East have eroded Obama's alleged "foreign policy" advantage (see earlier post Obama vs. Romney Foreign Policy, 9/26/12).

6) Paul Ryan will crush Joe Biden in the VP debate on 10/11/12.  GUARANTEED.  Romney selected a VP who is actually capable of becoming President, Obama failed to do so in 2008 and is doubling down on Joe in 2012.

7) There is an "enthusiasm gap" between the supporters of Obama and Romney.  Many Democrats I know will vote for Obama, but with a keen sense of disappointment.  Republicans, on the other hand, are eagerly "hoping for change," so to speak.

Commander Kelly says, "A respectable Romney debate performance with a strong Republican get-out-the-vote effort will mean a Romney / Ryan victory in November."

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