Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Debate Question

US Eagle vs Russian Bear

The question that should come up at tonight's Presidential debate in Las Vegas but almost certainly will not is this: "How would you as Commander in Chief respond to a Russian invasion of the three Baltic Republics (Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia) who are all NATO members and with whom we have treaty obligations under Article 5 of the NATO charter?"  Instead we will be entertained by questions about Hillary's E-mail and the Donald's open mike recordings.  What a pity!

The right answer to this question could win either candidate the White House.  The wrong answer could, quite literally, end our world.

The NATO charter stipulates that an attack on one member is an attack on all members.  Article 5 has only been invoked on one occasion.  This was after the 9/11 attacks on the USA in 2001.  NATO forces were deployed to Afghanistan along with US troops and some remain there now 15 years on.

T-14 Armata Tank

Putin's Russia seems eager to test the will of the West.  In 2008 as the world was about to celebrate the Olympic games in Beijing when Russian forces invaded and crushed Georgia.  In 2014 Russian troops invaded the Crimea and subsequently annexed territory that had belonged to the Ukraine.  In spite of weak oil prices and economic weakness, Russia has dramatically stepped up its defense spending in recent years.  In 2015, for example, Russia introduced the T-14 Armata tank.  The Russian Army plans to add 2,500 of these vehicles to their arsenal.  Russian military spending now stands at $69 billion per year more than any other European nation and more than anytime in the history of the Russian Federation.  Note the steady increase in spending since 1999.

How has the West responded to this threat?    The short answer is not very well.  First, NATO has been pre-occupied with addressing the threat of  Islamic terrorism rather than the menace that Russia represents.  This may be understandable due to the attention grabbing casualties incurred in the US and around the world from 9/11 to the present.  Russia is, however, a far greater threat to the peace security of the West than the threat of ISIS, Al Qaeda or any terrorist organizations.  Put simply, Russia has nuclear weapons while the terrorists do not.  ISIS can sever the heads of its opponents and journalists but they cannot deliver a nuclear bomb.

Second,  NATO members have slashed spending on defense.  Only three of the 27 NATO members outside of the US spent more than 2% of GDP on defense in 2013 (UK, Greece and Estonia).  NATO members need to step up and shoulder more of the burden for our common defense.

Third, NATO's diversity (many languages, many different politics, etc.) make it intrinsically weaker when it comes to coordinating and executing strategy.  Russia, on the other hand, is united by one language and one wildly popular leader.

Fourth, NATO's weakness in conventional forces makes the use of nuclear weapons even more likely.  This is where things really get scary.  As General Sir Richard Shirreff's 2016 book, War With Russia (, points out it would take time for American forces to deploy from the United States while a Russian occupation of the Baltic Republics (on Russia's doorstep) could be achieved militarily within days.  An American president would then face the grim prospect of trying to dislodge the Russians from NATO territory with either American ground troops or nuclear weapons.  Shirreff served as the Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe before his recent retirement.  The Allied Rapid Reaction Corps, which Shirreff headed up, is not really all that rapid.

In my new book, An Adventure in 1914, I point out that World War I was history's greatest train wreck (  The alliance system of 1914 was a powder keg waiting to be ignited by the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary on June 28, 1914.

Meanwhile, President Obama is considering the launch of a cyber attack on Russia in retaliation for interference in the American election (

2017 could be another train wreck and America is about to choose its engineer. 

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Saturday, October 15, 2016


We Americans are familiar with 11/22/63 -- the date on which JFK was assassinated.  How many of us, however, recognize the significance of 6/28/14?

The spot where WWI began
Courtesy Mehul Randery

On 6/28/14 the Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife Sophie were assassinated in Sarajevo.  This double homicide was far more historically consequential than the Kennedy assassination.  It was the catalyst for the start of World War I which claimed the lives of over 17 million people.  The so-called "Great War" would shatter four empires and lead directly to Communism, Fascism and World War II.  It was history's greatest train wreck and it all began on 6/28/14.

In my new book, An Adventure in 1914, I wrote this about the assassin Gavril Princip...

Gavril Princip 1894-1918

"Gavril Princip (1894 – 1918) was nineteen years of age when he assassinated the Archduke Ferdinand and his wife in Sarajevo on June 28, 1914.  Princip, born in Obljaj in Bosnia - Herzegovena, was a Bosnian Serb nationalist who received training and weapons from a secret society called the Black Hand.  He was a slight man, the son of a farmer, who complained that “people took me for a weakling”.

Sarajevo 2016
Photo courtesy of Mehul Randery
He was equipped with a revolver and a cyanide packet on Franz Joseph street when the Archduke’s vehicle slowed to a stop.  Princip clambered onto the limousine’s running board.  The Archduke, dressed in a distinctive helmet with bright green ostrich feathers, was impossible to miss.  Princip was armed with a Browning NM1910 revolver that was capable of firing six .380 ACP rounds.  He only fired two shots at Ferdinand and Sophie and each was fatal.
Archduke Franz Ferdinand
Princip raised the revolver to his temple to take his own life but the gun was knocked away.  He was unable to swallow his cyanide packet.  Princip was immediately identified as the shooter and beaten by a mob.  Police officers rescued him from lynching and he was quickly arrested.  Under interrogation he declared, “I am a Yugoslav nationalist and I believe in the unification of all South Slavs in whatever form of state and that it be free of Austria.”

Sarajevo street corner of 1914 Assassination, Bosnia, 2016
Courtesy Mehul Randery
Wells tell us that “the Archduke and his wife were murdered by an Austrian subject, in Austrian territory”.  Technically this is true as Princip had been born in Bosnia, Sarajevo was in Bosnia and Austria had annexed Bosnia in 1908.  Wells also claims that Serbia had warned Austria of the plot to kill the Archduke in advance of June 28.  This remains debatable.  After the assassination Serbian ambassadors did claim to have warned Austria; they later denied these claims.  A vaguely worded telegram sent on June 18 did direct the Serbian ambassador to Vienna to warn his Austrian counterparts of a plot to kill the Archduke on Bosnian territory.

Princip was tried and convicted but was not executed due to his youth at the time of the assassination.  He died in an Austrian prison of tuberculosis on April 28, 1918 nearly four years after the assassination."

Special thanks to my good friend Mehul Randery who visited Sarjevo this summer and took photographs. 

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Monday, October 3, 2016

First Reviews for An Adventure in 1914

I am very pleased to see the reviews starting to come in for An Adventure in 1914 -- my most personal work to date.

Andrew Roberts
The British historian Andrew Roberts calls it...

"A charming memoir of an American family holiday in Europe just as WW1 breaks out. Beautifully edited & illustrated."

Here is what Kirkus has to say...

"A memoir, written sometime between September 1914 and May 1915, recollects the chaotic beginning of World War I.

In June 1914, T. Tileston Wells, an attorney from New York, set out by sea for Europe with his wife, Georgina; his 18-year-old son; and his 11-year-old daughter. Later that same month, while Wells was in Paris, a Serbian national assassinated Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria in Sarajevo, the spark that ultimately led to the Great War. Initially, Wells was reluctant to leave Paris, but his wife was confident no war would come, so they embarked for Austria by train. However, in July, Austria issued an ultimatum to Serbia, and while the family was vacationing in Cortina, Austria-Hungary officially declared war. The following month, while Wells was touring Riva, Germany and Russia began their conflict, and he was briefly arrested on suspicion of being a Russian spy. He was traveling without a passport—common at the time—but thankfully, he had an introductory letter from William Jennings Bryan, then the U.S. secretary of state. The U.S. Congress appropriated considerable funds to help rescue Americans stuck in Europe at the time, but efforts at rescue were woefully incompetent; meanwhile, banks in Venice, where Wells applied for a passport, weren’t disbursing funds. Wells was eventually able to make to it to Rome in September, right before Benedict XV was selected as the new pope. Soon after, he and his family left Naples on the SS Canopic, which ultimately transported them to Boston. Wells later became a fierce advocate for Serbian relief and the Romanian consul general to America. Kelly (Italy Invades, 2015), Wells’ great-grandson, writes a thoughtful introduction to this remembrance, and provides a running editorial commentary that consistently furnishes edifying information about Wells and the war. Wells’ interpretations of the grand history unfolding around him are consistently insightful and prescient, and sometimes historically controversial; for example, he contends that Serbia warned Austria of the plan to murder the archduke. It’s fascinating to see a firsthand witness’s account of the war’s start, as well as his interpretation of its causes. It’s also thrilling to follow Wells’ attempt to steward his family back to the relative safety of the United States. This is historical scholarship at its best: rigorous, testimonial, and dramatic.

An enthralling introduction to one of the defining events of the 20th century."

An here is the review from Foreword...

"This eyewitness account of the beginning of WWI is engrossing and detailed.

In his brief, engrossing eyewitness-to-history-style memoir, An Adventure in 1914, American lawyer T. Tileston Wells recounts his experience in Europe at the outbreak of World War I. His recollections are fleshed out and amplified for contemporary readers by way of an introduction and numerous historical notes by his great-grandson, Christopher Kelly.

The duet begins with an introduction by Kelly, who ably captures life in the last golden days of the belle epoque and the interplay of tensions that led to war. Kelly also offers biographical details about his great-grandfather, including the enlivening fact that he was flirt, rumored to have had an affair with Queen Marie of Romania.

Despite the gathering clouds of war, Europe in 1914 still drew Americans who had the time and the means to enjoy extended travel, Wells and his family among them. His memoir begins in mid-July, with the family preparing to depart for Austria and Switzerland after a two-week stay in Paris. This section of the book is uneventful, a recitation of destinations and scenery. The narrative becomes more interesting as the political tensions mount.

Wells carefully notes the signs of impending war: massing troops in countries and cities that will oppose each other; crowded trains as travelers hurry back to their home countries; military bands playing long into the night. When hostilities break out, the narrative shifts to Wells’s difficulties getting his family back to the states.

The tone throughout the book is impersonal, devoid of speculations or feelings about the unfolding events. For example, the family sets sail in a world at peace, but the war’s triggering event—the assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife—occurs just before they land in Europe. The memoir begins two weeks later, without comment on how this event affected the family or their plans. Characterization is similarly absent. Wells refers to members of his family simply as his wife, daughter, or son, rather than by their names.

Interspersed with the memoir are numerous sidebars from Kelly. These range from moderately interesting to downright fascinating, especially a piece tracing the techniques of modern surveillance and spying to their WWI origins. Though set off within boxes, the sidebars can be distracting; they interrupt the text, and at times are themselves interrupted by additional information.

The text includes a helpful time line, maps, and a suggested reading list. The book’s many color photographs are a high point. Pictures of the Tyrol region of Austria, grand old hotels and caf├ęs, and trains and ocean liners build a detailed image of time and place.

An Adventure in 1914 is a concise and vivid snapshot of an era and of events that have too often been overshadowed by more recent wars."

Now US Review of Books weighs in...

"In each compartment was a printed notice saying that if you opened a window or a door when the train was moving that you were liable to be shot."

This thin, but handsomely produced hardback is a glimpse of what Europe looked like to an American and his family at the outset of World War I. It’s the first-person chronicle of T. Tileston Wells, a New York attorney who sailed for the continent little knowing that prior to arrival, Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand would be assassinated.

Already in Paris, and with the drums of war rumbling, an ill-advised decision is made to continue the family’s vacation with a trip through Austria. However the further they go, the more they realize that mobilization for war is in full swing. Wells chooses to head for Italy, believing it will be the safest way to begin their trip home. In Riva though, he’s accused of being a Russian spy and only convinces authorities otherwise by producing a letter of introduction from American Secretary of State, William Jennings Bryan. Then, in Venice, impending fear of war has caused financial hysteria and it’s rumored that even New York banks are failing, making securing additional cash virtually impossible. So from Florence to Rome to Naples they journey, eventually gaining passage on a steamer to Boston.

The family’s adventure is earnestly captured in Wells’ own words. However it’s enhanced greatly by the writing and editing skills of Kelly. He adds historical context, information regarding different countries’ agendas and different individuals’ motivations, plus a wealth of photographs and illustrations that help the tumultuous times spring vividly to life. This is history carefully crafted and painstakingly packaged—and it’s all in the family. Editor Kelly is author Wells' great-grandson."

Reviewed by Joe Kilgore

Midwest Book Review had this to say...

"Synopsis: An Adventure in 1914 is a memoir written by Thomas Tileston Wells of New York City, and edited by his great-grandson Christopher Kelly. Wells, a lawyer, wrote this document after a harrowing journey he took in the summer of 1914 with his wife and two children. He had planned on pleasurable hikes in the Swiss and Austrian Tyrol. Instead he was a witness to history's greatest train wreck - the outbreak of World War I. Wells wrote poignantly about the mobilization of European armies and its effect on the soldier's families. He wrote about the impossibility of using a return ticket on French railway lines when all trains were being used to transport soldiers. Wells was even arrested and threatened by Austrian authorities with immediate execution on the grounds of being a Russian spy! Wells escaped but his manuscript was never published...until now.

Critique: An Adventure in 1914 is a true-life memoir as riveting as an Ernest Hemingway novel. In order to provide proper credit for his great-grandfather's writings, editor Christopher Kelly retraced Wells' journey, taking careful photographs as he went. A wealth of these full-color photographs illustrates this vivid, unforgettable testimony of the outbreak war on a never-before- seen scale. An Adventure in 1914 is as enjoyable as it is edifying, and highly recommended for both public library collections and personal reading lists. It should be noted that An Adventure in 1914 is also available in a Kindle edition ($9.99)."

Thanks Andrew Roberts, Kirkus, Foreword, US Review of Books and Midwest Book Review!

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